Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 10.689639 12.266252 13.969066 15.941607 18.160294 20.575252 23.399327
2025-04-27 8.403504 10.537165 13.024306 16.124276 19.870110 24.234878 29.689623
2025-05-04 7.130407 9.469682 12.333522 16.072623 20.797803 26.540219 34.013238
2025-05-11 6.069721 8.494844 11.598690 15.823537 21.379366 28.385760 37.831581
2025-05-18 5.365965 7.859495 11.175658 15.853270 22.215654 30.492762 41.985742
2025-05-25 4.846182 7.399475 10.915568 16.037205 23.217192 32.819827 46.505166
2025-06-01 4.353975 6.914048 10.556845 16.024570 23.907256 34.721406 50.505109
2025-06-08 3.896530 6.425006 10.137111 15.869589 24.354728 36.276090 54.066463
2025-06-15 3.579632 6.111634 9.937509 16.001467 25.195093 38.393294 58.486747
2025-06-22 3.383809 5.964839 9.968750 16.466718 26.534088 41.269344 64.107775
2025-06-29 3.065291 5.586395 9.605663 16.289795 26.878619 42.687130 67.639343
2025-07-06 2.657932 5.018245 8.891350 15.499734 26.214721 42.544265 68.809257
2025-07-13 2.512313 4.890460 8.890997 15.868340 27.407729 45.303174 74.548495
2025-07-20 2.365894 4.747115 8.852357 16.168534 28.504874 47.964161 80.260127
2025-07-27 2.168734 4.490348 8.595556 16.075691 28.940656 49.587935 84.396641
2025-08-03 1.969765 4.209586 8.272237 15.840619 29.116052 50.790124 87.898885
2025-08-10 1.828979 4.026007 8.106477 15.865488 29.724266 52.709044 92.621844
2025-08-17 1.723001 3.900347 8.035515 16.051268 30.613221 55.120047 98.237498
2025-08-24 1.600566 3.728759 7.863864 16.038026 31.144955 56.947305 102.947427
2025-08-31 1.472197 3.531515 7.626520 15.883134 31.408263 58.320326 106.935810
2025-09-07 1.387663 3.419154 7.545112 16.015041 32.192176 60.611358 112.561947
2025-09-14 1.344866 3.394012 7.634894 16.480671 33.610655 64.059779 120.304274
2025-09-21 1.239972 3.218855 7.405843 16.303605 33.813852 65.367036 124.358934